Documentation of an Imperative To Improve Methods for Predicting Membrane Protein Stability

There is a compelling and growing need to accurately predict the impact of amino acid mutations on protein stability for problems in personalized medicine and other applications. Here the ability of 10 computational tools to accurately predict mutation-induced perturbation of folding stability (ΔΔG) for membrane proteins of known structure was assessed. All methods for predicting ΔΔG values performed significantly worse when applied to membrane proteins than when applied to soluble proteins, yielding estimated concordance, Pearson, and Spearman correlation coefficients of <0.4 for membrane proteins. Rosetta and PROVEAN showed a modest ability to classify mutations as destabilizing (ΔΔG < -0.5 kcal/mol), with a 7 in 10 chance of correctly discriminating a randomly chosen destabilizing variant from a randomly chosen stabilizing variant. However, even this performance is significantly worse than for soluble proteins. This study highlights the need for further development of reliable and reproducible methods for predicting thermodynamic folding stability in membrane proteins.